I've been reading a lot of these nonfic books about trying to understand the world by looking at things a little closer and trying to make sense of the facts and the data that's in front of us. Nate Silver's book
The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail But Some Don't is heavy on statistics and data, what Silver is most known for mastering. In
Signal, Silver presents many cases where data and deep diving into statistics may present a better view of what's really going on, from evaluating baseball prospects to projecting election results. The book compares and contrasts differing viewpoints regarding analysis and how they can be used in unison as well as be used off each other to prognosticate and predict possible outcomes. He stresses that searching for the signal, the probable truth as opposed to the perceived popular opinion, the noise, may lead us to better predictions and eventually better long-term understanding.
Similarly, William Poundstone, in his book
Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing & Outwitting Almost Everybody, stresses that by merely paying attention to the seemingly random and arbitrary patterns that people unconsciously abide by, we may be able to gain knowledge and understanding with which to gain favor, outwit foes and win Oscar pools and games. It's an interesting read, like Silver, Poundstone integrates real-world concerns like figuring out the stock markets and Big Data with sports, where the intersection of data analysis and unscripted action meet. A lot of what the book purports is that you can outguess simple events like multiple choice tests and card games by merely studying and understanding the things that people are most likely unconsciously going to do and using that to your advantage.
Nassim Nicolas Taleb, one of the world's foremost predictive analysts, writes in his book
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, that we tend to come up with simple answers to complex problems after they've already happened, instead of doing the work and the research ahead of time to prevent them from happening in the first place. Taleb focuses on events such as the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, which Taleb predicted in the book, published in 2007, to prop up his "black swan theory," which, by using psychological and mathematical & scientific approaches, may help us understand and predict seemingly significant acts of randomness, and how to cope with them after the fact.
Black Swan is a bit heavier of a read than Silver and Poundstone, and admittedly a bit over my head at some points, but extremely informative and interesting.
David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits and the Art of Battling Giants, the latest from Malcolm Gladwell, explores the phenomenon of that mythical battle between an unstoppable force and a diminutive challenger and how easy it actually is to combat Goliath by using his own weaknesses against him. Gladwell uses historical events and battles, both physical (such as the titular fight) and cultural (civil rights movements, basketball, etc.) to show how underdogs can outwit their more dominant foes by engaging in unexpected behavior and using perceived weaknesses to exploit holes in expected favorites. Some of the arguments are a bit weak, such as a chapter where a successful Hollywood producer with dyslexia claims he would never wish it upon his worst enemy but wouldn't have wanted to grow up not suffering from it is uninspiring and drags a bit but nonetheless Gladwell's point of view when it comes to addressing the benefits of outliers and underdogs is evident here. It shows us that by merely taking a second look at our battles and re-assessing our strengths and weaknesses may perhaps help us beat the odds.
The most recent book of essays by one of my favorite culture critics Chuck Klosterman,
I Wear The Black Hat: Grappling With Villains (Real And Imagined), explores the phenomenon of cultural villiany and how it affects the way we consume pop culture and the way we see our society's most infamous characters. For example, why we like some sports figures but loathe others, and why a character like Batman is heroic, but we look at real life vigilantes as dangerous criminals. What Klosterman is trying to understand is what we as a society are trying to get at when we label someone as a villain, and why, perhaps, those people are much more rewarding and interesting to study and learn about because, as he states as part of his thesis, as he gets older, the villains are just more fun. This is the most fluid and least concrete of the bunch, more of an opinionated criticism of pop culture than a deep dive into the nuts and bolts of it all but Klosterman is a brilliant essayist and has one of the keenest eyes for this kind of stuff.
